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Soft power in Afghanistan and no plan for Iran?

Self-delusion reaches new heights when clueless Westerners defend Sharia, the "moderate" … and "mild" Islamism - Youssef M. Ibrahim

 Anyone who remembers the Vietnam War might be having hot flashes of déjà vu today. We are again engaged in a grand campaign to “win the hearts and minds” of an implacable foe in a place where we do not understand the language, the religion, the culture, or the opportunity costs. The macro strategy is “nation building”; a policy which explicitly admits, unlike Vietnam, that there are no “kinetic,” or military, solutions to the Afghan insurgency.

So strategy begins with an oxymoron: 100,000 troops deployed to secure, police, and train - not to kill and break things. The assumptions here are twofold; that Afghan troops or cops will serve for reasons other than pay; and that NATO troops are best used as secular missionaries - teachers and social workers first, warriors only as necessary. Put aside for a moment the practical difficulties of such tactics. The purpose of this nation building is to convince a semiliterate theocratic peasantry that a corrupt central government in Kabul, and a bevy of naïve NATO philanthropists, has the best interests of the locals at heart. Reserve judgment! It gets worse.

Flawed premises are a stones throw from false assumptions.  Spokesmen from Kabul, thru Brussels, and on to Washington argue that a little (or a lot, depending on who is counting) nation building, might drive a wedge between the “people” and the Taliban/al Qaeda axis – an axis underwritten by powerful shadow sponsors with deep pockets. Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, and Pakistan are just some of the players behind the scrim. These are states that NATO is unable or unwilling to confront for their support for Islamist incitement, insurgency, and terrorism in the Mid East, South Asia, and elsewhere.

Nation builders earnestly argue that the Taliban and al Qaeda are “foreign” radicals, not native to Afghanistan; fair enough, yet still only a half truth. The Taliban, literally religious “students,” are mostly native to Pastunistan, a tribal area of six million souls that includes parts of Afghanistan and Pakistan.  Arab sponsors are indeed foreigners, but compared to whom? Surely Pashtun fellaheen have more in common with native mullahs and Arabian imams than they do with Americans and Europeans.  NATO and the elites in Kabul are playing on the slippery slope; and the radical coalition of Islamists is the home team with the high ground.

Reasons for not confronting Arab and Persian sponsor states are clear enough; fears about energy, debt, and nuclear proliferation. Western politicians are reluctant to put their pecuniary or kilowatt excesses in play. Arabia carries the liens on many Western furnaces and significant sovereign debt. Sunni Pakistan, another erstwhile “ally,” remains a safe haven for serial nuclear proliferation and serial terror. Recall the recent Mumbai massacre.

Nonetheless, wishful thinkers on both sides of the allied political spectrum insist that they know the minds of illiterate tribesmen in Afghanistan, most of which live under the Taliban thumb. The reliability of opinion polls in places where we can’t drive a Hummer, no less take a political pulse, is more than a little suspect. However, there are many other polls in the Ummah (community of Muslim nations) which put the lie to the myth of moderation among Muslims.

Recent opinion surveys taken by the Pew Global Attitudes Project in the Arab/Muslim world indicate that terror groups and their tactics (jihad) have enjoyed significant support in many countries for years. These figures would surely be higher still if countries like Saudi Arabia, the Sudan, Somalia, Ethiopia, Yemen, Libya, and Iran were included in the polling. Anti-Jewish (not anti-Israeli) sentiment consistently comes in at 90% plus in the Arab world. Selective as they are, the Pew surveys clearly show that support for Islamism is hardly a “fringe” phenomenon in the Muslim world.

Beliefs of Muslims, in general, and Arabs and Persians in particular, are guideposts to a larger question of opportunity costs, questions that four successive American administrations have been unwilling to confront. If the “war choice” in Iraq was a diversion from the “war of necessity” in Afghanistan, how is the war in Afghanistan not a distraction from the sufficient threat from Iran? The Teheran menace is not simple nuclear proliferation; the entire Levant is slipping its strategic moorings under the fog of a banal debate about micro tactics, like “soft power,” in South Asia.

Exhibit one is Turkey, a NATO member state. Ankara is distancing itself from Israel and mending fences with Arab and Persian neighbors. Visa restrictions have been lifted between Turkey, Syria, and Iran. More ominous is the recent purge and persecution of military Kamalists (secular Turks) by the ruling religious party of Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan.

Exhibit two would be Iraq where the Shiite majority, using democratic elections and Persian financing, could become the permanent majority and make Iraq the second Shia state, forging another link in a theocratic Islamist crescent.

Exhibit three would be the unholy trinity on the flanks of Israel itself; Hizbollah (in Lebanon) to the north, Hamas (in Gaza) to the south, and Fatah to the east (on the West bank). All three terror groups are now supported by Persian and Arab donors. Shiite and Sunni activists make common cause when it comes to the elimination of Israel.  

Exhibit four would be the Persian nuclear program where everyday that passes lowers the threshold for a strategic war that would make Iraq and Afghanistan irrelevant overnight. Persians have taken the point; picked up the gauntlet of Muslim militancy after 50 years of Arab incompetence.

Picture now yet another war where Israel and Iran are involved in an aerial exchange, while Israeli borders are besieged by Islamist irregulars on three sides.  NATO forces could not be easily redeployed without tedious international dithering, assuming the West supports Israel at all. Geography, space, and time are not IDF allies.  The risk of another Holocaust is the most obvious opportunity cost of the Iraq and Afghanistan sideshows.

The renaissance of theocratic militancy within Islam worldwide is a rapidly escalating peril to believers and infidels alike. The subway bombings in Moscow on 29 March again underline the global scope of the problem. The nexus of the threat is political, yet the varied instruments are lethal. Religion is the burkha for an ideology that seeks to: use and then curtail democratic processes, eliminate secularism, and ultimately replace democracies with a kind of utopian monoculture.  Surely such totalitarian schemes must fail; the damage they do in the interim is the danger.

The most immediate existential threat comes from Iran. A recent Department of Defense memo addressed to the National Security Council expresses alarm that the Obama administration has no contingency plan should sanctions against Tehran fail. Secretary of Defense, Robert Gates claims the “the United Sates does not have an effective long-range policy for dealing with Iran’s steady progress toward nuclear capability.” According to the 17 April NY Times report, unnamed White House officials have dismissed the “wake up call” from DOD.

National security analysts have been looking at the evolution of ‘modern’ Islamic irredentism for fifty years now. As the recent correspondence between DOD and the NSC suggests, experts remain reluctant to clarify the threat or prioritize the targets therein. Riflemen refer to such navel-gazers as “poges,” military slang for useful idiots; unwitting apologists who campaign vigorously for flaccid or ambiguous policies that put deployed allied soldiers, partners like Israel, and true democracy in harm’s way.

.................... 

This article appeared in yesterday’s edition of American Thinker.

 

 

 


 

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Bibi and the Barbarians


“Where hope is unchecked by any experience, it is likely that our optimism is extravagant.” - Charles S. Pierce 

Barack Obama has yet to visit Israel, America’s only true ally in the Middle East. Nonetheless, the president is about to visit his third Muslim capital in a year. Without reading too much into Mr. Obama’s heritage or foreign travel priorities, it may be time to remind the president that Israel is a friend also; not simply the only true democracy in the Mid-East, but Tel Aviv is also a unique partner in an otherwise barbaric neighborhood. 

Yes, barbaric! Let’s not mince words. Israel is surrounded on three sides by terrorists; Hezbollah, Fattah, and Hamas. These are groups who name buildings, streets, and squares after suicide bombers. Farther North, Israel is threatened with mind numbing regularity by Iran, the oxymoronic “Islamic republic” - a Shiite theocratic menace that minces no words either. Tehran’s threat to “wipe Israel off the face of the earth” is soon to be underwritten by nuclear weapons with which the ayatollahs hope to take the irredentist mantel from inept Sunni Arabs. Indeed, Persia is poised to attempt to do what the Arab world, after many failed attempts, could not: sponsor the next Holocaust. 

Against this darkening sky, the Obama White House sent a professional bridesmaid, Joe Biden, to Tel Aviv to jumpstart another oxymoron: the “proximity” talks. Proximity is one of those State Department euphemisms used to describe an adult version of “telephone;” party A talks to party B only through party C. Such charades are necessary because schizophrenic Palestinian Arabs are divided by two warring governing authorities; Fattah on the West Bank and Hamas in Gaza. 

Do the math. Three players are in search of a “two state” solution. Israel must suffer this madness because the two Arab claimants can not speak with one voice. Vice President Biden, foot ready at the mouth, played the role of intermediary for a few days starting on 8 March in Tel Aviv. With such “partners,” no Israeli Prime Minister could be faulted for looking for the rabbit hole. 

While Biden was trying to explain how three goes into two, some numbers of a different sort were tossed into the mix. The Israeli Interior Ministry announced that 1600 additional apartment units would be built in east Jerusalem. Before Air Force II could get its wheels up, Biden and Hilary Clinton launched a fusillade of brickbats at Israel; claiming among other things that the expansion of housing was an “insult” and a “slap in the face.” 

You might think that Hilary would have a thicker skin by now. After all, during her husband’s administration, the priapic President was too preoccupied with a young intern in the Oval Office to notice the Taliban taking Kabul (Sept, 1996) for the first time; and Mullah Omar closing every girl’s school in that country. Afghanistan bled while Hilary’s husband dallied - until the Bush administration came along to reopen those schools. Now Mrs. Clinton, yet another “progressive” Secretary of State, finds her integrity under a stack of Jerusalem condo plans. 

(Mrs. Clinton seems to be channeling Madeline Albright, her husband’s Secretary of State; hyper sensitive to Israeli behavior and insensate to the worst behaviors among Arabs and Muslims; behaviors that include genital mutilation, polygamy, child marriage, stoning, amputations, and a universal terror that targets civilians. Not all Muslims are terrorists, yet nearly every recent terrorist is a Muslim. When might we expect an apology from Islam?) 

A pandering media was quick to pile on. First there was MSNBC’s Hardball host, Chris Mathews, suggesting that Jews were racists because President Obama doesn’t fare well in Israeli polls. Then Tom Friedman of The NY Times, never one to miss the opportunity to abuse an opportunity, resurrects the old canard about the omniscience of Israeli guilt. 

Paraphrasing Biden, he reports: 

“What you (Israel) are doing here (building apartments) undermines the security of our (US) troops who are fighting in Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan. That endangers us and endangers regional peace.” 

Put aside for a moment the Vice President’s witless confirmation that US Special Forces are doing more than “training” the locals in Pakistan. Biden is using the contemporary rhetoric of anti-Semitism; whenever Muslims misbehave, somehow, somewhere there’s a Jewish connection or liability. Such “progressive” logic would have us believe that Israeli behavior, or American support for Israel, are central motives for Muslim atrocities, no matter where they occur. Such reasoning absolves the barbarians of moral hazard and validates a future of endless, no-fault terrorism. 

We should recognize the warped Biden/Clinton and Mathews/Friedman moralizing for what it is: an obscene double standard that now typifies the distortions of the Muslim Right and the American Left. Their indignation is underwritten by the insidious presumption that Israel should put its national development on hold until inept Arab neighbors get their act together. 

But, what about Bibi? Is the Israeli government trying to send a message to antagonists and apologists alike? Here, there is more than a little fertile ground for some informed speculation. On the one hand, we could believe that the Israeli PM was ambushed by coalition partners to his right; religious conservatives who like to remind all takers that the status of Jerusalem is not negotiable. Fair enough. Under Palestinian control, the Temple Mount might be renamed the Kalid Sheikh Mohammed mosque. Now that would be a real insult! 

Then there is the possibility that Netanyahu knew about the impending housing announcement and sought to use Biden’s token visit to underscore the certainty of Israeli policy – in contrast to the drift and dithering that passes for strategy in Washington. And lastly, there is the camel in the tent. Maybe Bibi is laying down a marker, given the flaccid response of America and Europe to the likelihood of nuclear weapons among the Persians. Maybe the Israeli PM is telling the world that he will do what is necessary to insure the prosperity, comfort, and safety of his people. If this is Netanyahu’s purpose, then Joe and Hilary are just bicycle messengers. Bibi’s real audience is Barack Obama. Maybe the Israeli Prime Minister, like Thatcher did with Bush senior, is trying to put a little starch in Barry’s boxer shorts - before the smoldering fuse in Iran becomes a catastrophic Mid-East explosion. 

Of course, Binyamin Netanyahu has apologized for any real or imagined indignities that Joe Biden may have suffered while in Israel. But it is unlikely that the PM will change the housing or the strategic plan. A wise leader knows that, in the end, puerile manner is no substitute for prudent policy. The penalties for caution are much more severe than the amends of regret. .
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Howell Raines; Back from the Boneyard


Seeing Howell Raines, disgraced former editor of the NY Times, preach about honesty in journalism (WP Op-Ed, 14 March) is a little like listening to Harry Reid (D-Nevada) trying to sell gambling and prostitution as destination resorts. In 2003, Raines, you may recall, was encouraged to spend more time “fly fishing” after his ace reporter, Jayson Blair, was exposed as a fraud and a cheat. Numerous staffers had raised alarms about Blair’s work, some of it on the DC beltway sniper story, but Raines would hear no criticism about his affirmative action protégé - facts be damned. 

The Blair fiasco was a bizarre echo of a similar incident at the Washington Post two decades earlier when a Ben Bradlee protégé cooked the books about a young black heroin addict in the District of Coumbia. Bradlee nominated Janet Cooke for a reporting Pulitzer which she won. When Cooke’s fiction was exposed, the reporter and the prize went up in smoke; both consumed by the white heat of truth. The ugly side of affirmative action was the real story behind both incidents. Two white editors, afflicted by a kind soft bigotry, were reluctant to use the same standards of journalism with minorities and women that are applied to white males. Indeed, in both cases, black reporters were all too eager to manufacture racial stereotypes; and two politically correct editors were all too willing to sacrifice integrity on the altar of ethnic or gender immunity. 

Now comes Raines, dripping with trout stream indignation, lamenting the standards at FOX and blasting Roger Ailes as a kind of newsroom ogre. The irony, and personal animus, here has a sickly sweet scent of hypocrisy - leavened with envy. FOX and internet journals are thriving while archaic outlets like the Times and the Post are sinking, stuck in the muck of a tedious patronizing ideology. Raines, like the fictional Colonel Jessep, “can’t stand the truth.” 

Traditional journalism is going under because it is still printing a product that fewer and fewer customers want to buy or read. The dinosaurs are walking the plank; an aging species that can not see that adaptation might be as simple as providing another point of view. Mr. Raines, and like minded editors, makes the inevitable, and enviable, success of FOX possible. Rupert Murdoch should send Howell Raines a thank-you note, a copy of Pinocchio, and a box of hand-tied trout flies.
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The Internet and the Agora


“The object of reasoning is to find out, from the consideration of what we already know, something else which we do not know.” – Charles Pierce (1870) 


The blogosphere seems to be flushing the mainstream downstream. The blowback is venomous, not a pretty sight. Media stars, especially, are fighting a vicious rear guard action against the inevitable. 

The rise of the Internet and the fall of traditional journalism are giving hyperbole a new lease on life. First we see Tom Friedman on Meet the Press calling the Internet “an open sewer of disinformation”. Then we hear Eric Schmidt, from the heights of Mountain View, second the motion by calling the Net a “cesspool.” Next, Ellen Goodman, in her swan song, tells us with a straight face that Internet users will lament the loss of “fact checkers” and old school “journalists.” 

Friedman’s attack on the blogosphere fairly drips with irony. His opinion colleague at The New York Times, Maureen Dowd, was cited for plagiarizing from a blogger last May. And now again in February the Times has had to fire a financial reporter, Zachery Kouwe, for lifting copy from The Wall Street Journal. Truth is not simply what you say; it is also what you don’t say. What Ms. Goodman does not say is that facts are what we choose to believe. Unfortunately, what we believe is not necessarily true.

And so it is with Goodman’s facts and analysis. A list of fact checkers from Ms. Goodman’s world of truth might include; Janet Cooke, Ben Bradlee, Stone Phillips, Jane Pauley, Mike Wallace, Mike Barnicle, Jayson Blair, Howell Raines, Dan Rather, Nina Totenberg, and Doris Kearns Goodwin. Professor Goodwin is included here because she is a high profile triple threat; academic, historian, and Media maven. These traditional practitioners have one or more of the following in common; fraud, plagiarism, misrepresentation, cover up, or little or no fact checking. These are just the descriptions that might be used in polite conversation. 

Yet, those are not all of the facts. Consider also the iconic institutions that employed or continue to employ such poseurs: The Washington Post, NBC, CBS, The Boston Globe, The New York Times, ABC, National Public Radio, and Harvard University. Cases of journalistic malpractice often have common denominators; tenured activists and like-minded employers. 

The Washington Post and The New York Times cases are instructive. Their agendas were mirror images. In September 1980, Janet Cooke created a fiction about a young District of Columbia crack addict. The Post story was nominated by the paper’s editors for a Pulitzer Prize. After the prize was awarded, some real fact checkers couldn’t find the lad in question and the fraud was exposed. When Editor Ben Bradlee tried to return the prize; the Pulitzer Committee demurred at first, confirming that this competition, like the annual Norwegian Nobel peace contest, is a kind of Special Olympics for the politically correct.

The New York Times fraud of 2003 was an eerie parallel to The Washington Post tale more than two decades earlier. Times editor Howell Raines ignored internal complaints about Jayson Blair’s sloppy work and advanced his young black protégé anyway. And, like Janet Cooke, Blair stepped on a land mine covering a story with racial overtones – the Beltway sniper. Blair’s scam was exposed by a former Times employee and the scandal occasioned an internal review that pretty much concluded that Jayson’s entire tenure under Raines was an extended exercise in misguided affirmative action, if not ethnic immunity. After the Raines era, The New York Times might have changed its motto to; “All the news that fits, we print!” 

The real story behind both frauds was the hazards of soft racism. Both reporters were all too willing to spin narratives about African American drug abusers and serial killers that their editors were all too willing to print - facts be damned. This willingness to confirm racial stereotypes by black reporters and white editors is the real tale yet to be told. The perils of patronizing bias are not limited by race, youth, or sex. Newsroom cougars have been part of the swim to the bottom too. Maureen Dowd, Sally Quinn, and Ellen Goodman could be pinups for journalistic agnotology, other variants of false narrative. 

Miss Dowd recently accused a congressman of calling the president a “boy” with no proof other than innuendo. The false narrative here is the belief that those who criticize black politicians are bigots. Ms. Quinn (Ben Bradlee’s wife), along with Jon Meacham, famously hosts an ecumenical web site (On Faith) which features Islamist apologists. The false narrative here is the belief that there are “moderate” or harmless variants of Jihad and Sharia. And lastly there is Ellen Goodman, herself, who in a recent column equated those who question some of the “junk science,” associated with global warming, with “holocaust deniers.” These recent cases illustrate the lack of fair play and racial double think that has come to characterize many traditional newsrooms. 

As it is with fact checking, reporting, and analysis; Media dinosaurs are again unwilling or unable to deal with truth. The mainstream monopoly is over. It is no longer possible for a few elites with a narrow ideology to control information or analysis, the building blocks of belief. Hemingway, a journalist by trade, was fond of saying that good writers know what to throw out. The same might be said of good editors. 

Politics, academia, and journalism are all troubled by the absence of term limits. Over time, these institutions tend to collect like-minded players where tenure becomes the dominant idiom. Small wonder that the ideological stasis at the networks and in the newsroom has fueled the “thunder on the Right,” enabling the rise of the likes of Rush Limbaugh and Rupert Murdoch. A news consumer hopes to be better informed, not manipulated, by the provider. If we are misled or polarized; surely, these are self-inflicted wounds.

Limbaugh and Murdoch have thrived for different reasons. Limbaugh sees himself as a voice for a “silent majority,” an audience patronized or ignored by the mainstream. Unlike his detractors, Limbaugh makes no secret of his agenda and he makes no fatuous claims of impartiality. Murdoch is probably less ideological, but just as savvy. Possibly taking a cue from Limbaugh, Murdoch and his FOX network recognized an underserved audience and exploited the bias of their competitors. There’s money to be made in filling a vacuum – even when it’s something as simple as providing another point of view. 

The virtues of the new paradigm are self evident. On the Internet, readers can go to an original content site, an aggregator, or they might create their own site. No one, save endangered pundits, laments the end of network and press monopolies; or the role that tenure, spin, hypocrisy, and bias play at those institutions. 

The Internet is the best thing to happen to free choice since Erasmus; the best thing to happen to democracy since John Locke; and the best thing to happen to commerce since Adam Smith. The Internet is the new agora, a new market for ideas. The end of the mainstream, the mendacity monopoly, is gospel. Good news indeed!

                                                  ___________________________ 

A shorter version of this piece appeared in the American Tinker on 27 Feb 10. The author is also the principal contributor to Anacostia Angst on Blogspot.
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Uncivil Wars in the Intelligence Community

A number of national security problems were on display over the holidays. At Thanksgiving, at least three uninvited guests cracked a Secret Service barrier and crashed a party at the White House. The intruders remained undetected until the next day.

A week before Christmas, the Director of National Intelligence, Dennis Blair, attempted to reassure the nation with an editorial celebrating the 5th anniversary of the Intelligence Reform and Prevention Act: "Our nation is becoming ‘safer every day’ (sic) because we are aware that information increases in power only when it is shared."

Several days later an Islamic suicide bomber nearly blew an Airbus out of the sky over Detroit, not because we didn’t know about the threat, but because the “sharing” of which Dennis Blair spoke, failed abysmally. Then on 30 December, an al Qaeda double agent infiltrated a secret CIA meeting in Afghanistan and blew himself up, taking seven American intelligence officers with him. 

To all of these operational blunders the responses have been either; unsupportable reassurances or implausible silver bullets. 

Janet Napolitano, Director of Homeland Security, was the first to assume a defensive crouch on 28 December, claiming “The system worked (sic)” after the aviation near miss. 

Napolitano was followed by Dennis Blair on 7 January: 

"While the December 25 attempt exposed improvement needs and flaws in coordination, it ‘did not expose weakness’ (sic) in the concepts of intelligence reform or suggest that its progress should be redirected. The Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act (IRTPA) and the progress of the past five years will continue to guide our future improvements."

Not to be outdone in the rationalization sweeps, CIA Director, Leon Panetta, took to the pages of the Washington Post on 10 January complaining: "We have found no consolation, however, in public commentary suggesting that those who gave their lives (in Afghanistan) somehow brought it upon themselves because of poor tradecraft." 

All of the apologetics were quickly followed by several rounds of silver bullets, the most ludicrous of which were ‘full body’ scanners. To be effective, such devices would have to be installed in every airport in the world; and even then, scanners would not be able to detect explosives secreted in body cavities.

All the smoke and mirrors deployed in the wake of the holiday security follies obscured an ever widening schism within the Intelligence Community; a growing analytical divide between a politicized group of Beltway threat minimalists which includes Blair, Napolitano, and Panetta and several Military Intelligence realists which include Major General Mike Flynn, chief of Intelligence for the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) and Lieutenant General Dave Deptula, chief of USAF Intelligence. 

Flynn fired a shot across the complacency bow on 4 January with an intelligence report that was published by the Center for a New American Security. The unusual venue for Flynn’s assessment was probably an attempt to insure that his report did not suffer the fate of a similar report from General McChrystal six months earlier. McChrystal’s summer candor was the source of the great “dithering” debate over Afghanistan troop augmentation. 

Echoing McChrystal’s earlier admonition, Flynn again spelled out a grim warning: 

"Our senior leaders - the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the Secretary of Defense, Congress, the President of the United States - are not getting the right information to make decisions with ... The media is driving the issues. We need to build a process from the sensor all the way to the political decision makers."          

In an email of 9 December, General Deptula exhibited similar candor in his assessment of the homeland miasma: 

" The number one cause of civilian casualties in Afghanistan is the Taliban — not air power. Human Rights Watch has verified that the Taliban kills three to four times more civilians than ISAF air and ground forces combined. More often than not, these deaths are deliberate….It is curious that it appears there is more ink spent on casualties from air attacks than there is on the criminality and violation of the ethical tenets of ‘Islam’ (sic) that occurs daily as a result of Taliban actions."

General Deptula’s bluntness is a beacon of clarity in an administration that seems to have stricken the words Islam, Muslim, or enemy from the strategic vocabulary. Deptula may work out of the E Ring at the Pentagon, but this former fighter pilot surely speaks for every American serviceman in two theaters of war - Islamists, not American GI’s, are the threat. 

A close reading of both generals reveals a clear signal from the field. Military Intelligence is trying to convey a realistic sense of threat and urgency to a national Intelligence establishment that appears to be tone deaf. Political operatives like Blair, Napolitano, and Panetta have the White House ear, yet none of these, including the President, have any experience with Intelligence or threat analysis. As a group, all four seem to be more concerned with Muslim cultural sensitivities than they are with dangers to deployed troops or national security.

Napolitano and Panetta are lawyers by profession, but they made their bones as politicians. Panetta’s national security vita is mostly tenure; nine terms in the House of Representatives. Napolitano, devoid of any national experience, was picked to head the Homeland Security Department as payback for being an early Obama supporter before the last presidential election. Blair is a retired military officer with a distinguished naval career. His preeminent qualification for the top Intelligence job seems to be reliability. 

The politicization of national Intelligence and national estimates has been metastasizing since the Clinton era. George Tenant, former Director of CIA, and Colin Powell, former Secretary of State, might be modern icons for the problem. In the run up to the second Iraq War, they perfected wet finger analysis and redefined objective assessments as the ability to tell either political party what they wanted to hear. 

Yet at this late date, we are still told by Mr. Blair that there is no need to change the vector of Intelligence “reform.” If this is true then those forthright Military Intelligence officers who are expressing concern about the threat and safety of troops in the field may be in for a bumpy ride. The analytical divide between the tactical commanders at the front and the Beltway salons in Washington is growing daily. One pundit captured the dilemma; the problem isn’t “incompetence but incomprehension.” Indeed, we can not defeat threats that we refuse to recognize.
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THE LAST GREAT TIGER HUNT


“Tiger, tiger burning bright in the forests of the night.” – William Blake 

Concerned citizens are wondering about the Media obsession with the late great Tiger Woods, the world’s “greatest” golfer. A day after Thanksgiving, Tiger was party to a domestic disturbance wielding a five iron in the wee hours of 27 November. Our favorite golfer attempted to beat a retreat in his Cadillac when he was hit by a fire hydrant, a tree, and an irate natural blonde. Elin Nordegen Woods then proceeded to “liberate” Tiger from the car wreckage with a few strokes of her short game. As the cops arrived, she was reported to be “hovering” over a prostrate champion. Hospitalization ensued. Tiger has not faced a camera or a golf tournament gallery since. His game, as they say, is on hold. 

Extramarital gaming of a sort provoked the disturbance. When Woods shook that tree, at least a dozen bimbos fell out, giving a new facet to the meaning of “player”. Like his wife, the ladies in question were mostly white, adding a racial twist to the knife. Tiger is often described as a black man, only a half truth; his mother was Thai and his father was an African American. Late night comedians quickly jumped on the biracial bandwagon. Wanda Sykes speculated: “The black in him bought the Cadillac and the Asian in him crashed it.” Sykes went on to characterize Tiger’s wife as “a Viking” expletive deleted – rhymes with witch. 

To date, there’s been some good and a lot of bad news for Tiger. The good news is that our hero seems to have come out of the scrape on the sunny side of Valhalla. The Media blitz is the bad news. That frenzy seems to be trying to do what his wife could not. Conjecture about motives covers all the usual suspects: race, envy, fame, wealth, and character flaws (e.g. arrogance). None of these, individually or collectively, provide a satisfactory explanation of Tiger’s behavior or the Media taste for his blood. Indeed, a single and comprehensive explanation for all that has transpired to date seems to be emerging; the game of golf itself. 

Indeed, we may be witnessing backlash of unprecedented dimensions. A vast network of golf haters seems to be coming out of the rough, onto the fairway, and they’ve got the clubhouse in the crosshairs. It’s not just a venal press that smells blood; golf widows, real athletes, Marxists, and environmentalists seem to be joining the hunt. If irony were a crime, golf would have to answer for many sins. The game is as close as you can come to sport without actually getting any exercise.

The typical golf foursome consists of four fat white guys in two electric carts. Caddies get the exercise. In many country clubs, the go-carts are mandatory. Walking 18 holes is not optional. The idea is to push as many chubby chaps around the loop in a day as quickly as possible. More loops mean more lucre. Only professional players are required to walk 18 holes, creating the illusion that golf is a “sport” - that requires exertion. Elsewhere the ethic is sloth. 

A caddy is mandated at all the best clubs too. He is a combination driver, porter, and personal valet. Caddies worth their divots know the game, the course, and adult beverages on the run. Golf might be the only popular game where the “athlete” rides, the caddy carries, and a bartender helps with the cheating. Yes cheating! Unlike team sports, which presume to build character, the game of golf cultivates liars and cheats. (This may be where Tiger takes a bow.) Never mind the caddy who gets a room for a bimbo, link traditions include stroke shaving with gimmicks such as “winter rules” and “mulligans”. 

Winter rules allow you to reposition your ball should it be encumbered by water, leaves, twigs, geese grease, or gator guano. The game of golf is supposed to have been invented by the Scots, but the mulligan, oddly enough, evokes the Irish. A mulligan is the practice of taking a second or third swing after the ball has been shanked, sliced, or hooked to parts unknown. The mulligan, not only allows a few strokes that do not appear on the score card, but allows a second ball in play. Mulligans are like the carnival game “Whack-a-Mole;” you get to swing until you hit something. 

Golf handicaps are worse still. In theory, a golfer’s handicap is supposed to level the playing field between good players and duffers. A “scratch” golfer has no handicap while a duffer might get to subtract as many as twenty strokes from his score at the end of the day. Handicaps are established by submitting “honest” score cards at the end of every round. In practice a low handicap is good for your ego, but a high handicap is better – for your game and your wallet. 

Golf hustlers all have high handicaps; making golf one of the few games where looking bad is actually good. The rage against golf and icons like Tiger Woods is fueled also by proletarians and tree huggers. Marxists, suffering from class envy, resent the exclusivity and costs of golfing. “Greens fees,” a euphemism for the cost of playing, are exorbitant at many clubs. A permanent membership might be tens of thousands, while a single loop runs to several hundred dollars. High fees keep the hoi polloi at bay and insure the country club set will not be worried by crab grass, dandelions, gnats, mosquitoes, and gophers. 

Indeed, these fees have little to do with political Greens. Environmentalists insist that golf and country clubs are little more than manicured toxic waste sites. There is more than a grain of truth here. A greens keeper is actually a chemical warfare specialist; he labors 24/7 against all manner of vermin and suspicious vegetation. His kit includes insecticide, herbicide, fungicide, and the occasional explosive. If you drop your cigar on the 18th green; you do not put it back in your mouth. 

The film Caddy Shack (1980) is a cult classic where the game of golf is skewered from a caddy’s perspective. Bill Murray plays a warped greens keeper who wages an incendiary war against an insurgent population of gophers. The film ends with a hilarious pyrotechnic convulsion not unlike the one that Tiger Woods’ career and the game of golf is experiencing today. 

In a final and delicious irony, American golf widows everywhere are doing the fist pump. Every woman, who was ever wronged by a mendacious spouse cheating under the cover of golf, is praying for the other shoe to drop. Now that Elin Nordegen has taken Tiger’s ride, will she close the loop and kick him to the curb? Poetic justice cries out for at least one more penalty stroke.

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 The author is a former caddy (Winged Foot Country Club), recovering golfer, and incumbent editor of, and principal contributor to this blog and Anacostia Angst on Blogspot. This essay also appeared in the 1 Jan 10 edition of American Thinker.
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Kicking the Can in Afghanistan

“Kick the Can” is a child’s game familiar to kids from large cities. The only equipment required is an old tin and a few willing children. The skills in play are stealth and speed. Like “Hide & Seek,” all but one of the group hides; and then they are sought by the solitary player. With “Kick the Can,” all initiative is ceded to the quarry - a kind of fool’s game for solitary hunters. 

 At the risk of abusing a metaphor, we have now embarked on a national strategy that looks for all the world like a fool’s game; and, in the process, ignores rules even a child might understand. The first rule is that one side doesn’t get to make the rules. In Afghanistan, declaring an arbitrary time limit, not only telegraphs punches, but does little but raise the pressure on the home team. 

Set aside for a moment the nonsense about wars of “choice” and wars of “necessity,” we might consider the blowback from Iraq. Having reversed the sectarian poles in Baghdad, might not the “progress” we see there be a kind of prudent economy of force? The Shiite majority may simply wait for the clock to run out now that we have set a date certain for withdrawal. The King of Jordan warns of a Shiite Crescent to the north of Israel. Is he wrong? 

 One side doesn’t control the number of players either. The arbitrary designation of Osama bin Laden and al Qaeda as the “core” of the problem ignores a larger threat with a global reach. Islamic fundamentalism is not limited to Afghanistan or Pakistan. Indeed, the ideology and financing on the Sunni side originates in places like Egypt and Saudi Arabia, our erstwhile “allies.” The militant threat on the Shiite side originates with Iran – now a nuclear aspirant. If Iraq was a distraction from the real threat in Afghanistan, how is Afghanistan not a distraction from the real threat in Iran? 

 The truth about Iraq is that it was a corrupt totalitarian menace to its corrupt theocratic Arab neighbors. Now Iraq is a corrupt Shiite state that might pursue a sectarian alliance with Iran. The truth about Afghanistan is that it is a tribal, if not feudal, mix beset by naïve Westerners. The truth about Pakistan is that it is a corrupt, if not duplicitous, janissary that might be one bullet away from theocracy. The truth about Iran is that it is the world’s largest Shiite theocracy; a so-called Islamic “republic.” The truth of all of this is that the threat is not a specific terrorist, terror group, state sponsor, or Muslim state. The bloom of jihad and theocracy within Islam world wide is the true threat. This menace is not simply demographics or immigration; it is also political. Theocracy is the goal of Islamists of every stripe; to replace secular law with a religious monoculture. The final and inadmissible truth is the inability or unwillingness of national security specialists, in general, and Western politicians, in particular, to acknowledge any of this. 

Tehran is yet another example in the Islamic constellation where we presume to make the rules of the game; we assume that the Persians can be jawboned or threatened with “sanctions” to relinquish their nuclear ambitions. And now there is a new strategy announced on 1 December by President Obama at West Point. The new course has two major components: moderation and denial. With the moderate approach we are neither “all in” nor “all out” in Afghanistan. We have limited our targets to one leader and one terror organization – and a kind of half-baked “nation building.” 

In Afghanistan, the US aspires to do what the British and Soviets could not. The English used to strap insurgents to the busy ends of cannons and the Soviets used to level villages from the air. American tactics are different; we plan to conquer Islamist fanatics with kindness - moderate on moderate.
As the moderate card is played we should remember what Turkish PM Recep Tayyip Erdogan had to say on the subject; “These descriptions are very ugly, it is offensive and an insult to our religion. There is no moderate or immoderate Islam. Islam is Islam….” The second component of the President’s West Point proclamation is denial. “Islam is one of the world’s great religions” we are told. We are led to believe that Jihad, Sharia, cultural irredentism, misogyny, and fifty years of terrorism have nothing to do with Muslims in general or Islam in particular. Never mind that prominent Muslims tell us otherwise so frequently that we can not or will not hear what they say. 

 The modest reinforcement in Afghanistan, constrained by an 18 month timeline, appears to be an attempt to replicate the “surge” strategy of Iraq. Here we should remember what President Obama said about such comparisons, “You never step in the same river twice.” Military Operations Research (MOR) has been looking at counter insurgent campaigns, including Afghanistan, for decades. MOR is an aggregate of disciplines that attempts to size forces and examine the variables that might lead to victory or stability. These disciplines include: statistics, probability theory, game theory, modeling, and simulation among others. Three variants have been applied to Afghanistan and insurgency in general: force to force comparisons, force to population models, and most recently, strategy to strategy comparisons. All three reach similar conclusions; numbers and strategy matter. In Afghanistan alone, 500,000 troops or police might be required; not for victory, just for stability. Or in the words of the RAND Corp. report, “The extremely low force ratio for Afghanistan, a country with a larger population than that of Iraq, shows the implausibility of current stabilization efforts by external forces.” Another analysis, looking at comparative strategy, simply says the insurgents will prevail. 

 These are polite ways of saying there are not enough US or allied troops in the field to do the job – nor is an adequate force likely to be deployed. This kind of candor is rare, indeed, especially for government contractors. The idea that the allies will fight al Qaeda and the Taliban while training and equipping 400,000 competent Afghan cops and soldiers, in 18 months, is nothing short of delusional. The majority of recruits would have to come from the Pashtun tribes, fighters most closely allied with the Taliban and their Arab sponsors. In short, General McChrystal probably underestimated the theater problem to begin with - and President Obama certainly did not give him what he wanted anyway. 

We have to assume that the Pentagon, Foggy Bottom, and the White House are aware of the studies and have chosen to ignore their conclusions. As in “Kick the Can,” numbers matter and we appear to be playing a fool’s game. The allied expeditionary force has no edge or margin of error in South Asia. 

In 18 months, if catastrophe does not end the game early, we will still be asking “what is to be done” in Afghanistan and Pakistan. And we will still be playing word games with the larger problem in the Muslim world. For the moment, the policy sketched by President Obama at West Point on 1 December can fairly be characterized as an exit strategy with an expiration date.
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What is to be Done?


The most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome.” - George Orwell

At the start of the 20th Century, Vladimir llyich Ulyanov penned a short polemic called “What is to be done?” In this essay, he laid the intellectual foundation for a rebellion and a future that was to become the Soviet Union. Lenin argued that while revolution might be made in the name of the proletariat, the heavy lifting was actually done by an elite “vanguard” of intellectuals. This oligarchy would latter bloom into such institutions as the Politburo, Central Committee, the Congress of People’s Deputies, Committee for State Security (KGB), and other euphemisms for nomenklatura. Lenin also rejected moderation; setting the stage for the Bolshevik/Menshevik split, a long civil war, and a delusion of world revolution – the Internationale.

Ironically, while tilling the ground for revolution, Lenin was also sowing the seeds of internal contradiction that would eventually bring down the Soviet Union and put the lie to Communism. His brand of socialism made all the right noises about equality, pluralism, and democracy; yet, the truth became the face of Joseph Stalin – a dictator.

For fellow travelers in the West, the first doses of reality therapy came from two quarters; a British author and a minor US Foreign Service officer. In 1945, George Orwell lampooned socialism as an Animal Farm where some critters would inevitably be more equal than others. And George Kennan argued, in a 1947 Foreign Affairs essay, that if the spread of Communism were “contained” by means short of nuclear war; it and the Soviet Union would implode from the weight of contradictions. Oddly enough, Kennan couldn’t overcome his background as a diplomat; he spent the rest of his life complaining that “containment” didn’t mean military force. Nonetheless, the combined pressures of containment, deterrence, and flexible response provided the policy synergy necessary to hold the line and prevail in the Cold War. By the late decades of the last century, a revolution without guns was underway. In 1987, Ronald Reagan blew on the wall and the animal farm collapsed.

A new debate about the fate of the world arose soon after. By 1989 the optimists were represented by Frank Fukuyama who argued in the End of History that the demise of Fascism and Communism represented a triumph of tolerant democracies. Like Hegel before, Fukuyama saw history as an evolving rational unity. Alas, equating the passage of time with progress doesn’t explain regressions like the Dark Ages, National Socialism, nor the irredentism of contemporary Islam. Samuel Huntington responded to Fukuyama’s optimism with The Clash of Civilizations, a more pessimistic view of Islamism. Huntington was half right; clash yes, civilization no. Ayatollahs and Imams seldom refer to Western culture as civilization; and “civilization,” as the West knows it, is hardly the goal of Islamists. Like every other war, the clash is political, not cultural. The goal of Islamism is to replace secular with theocratic; while replacing bikinis with burkhas could still be a lesser social objective. Islam, in its most animated forms, is an aggressive political ideology.

This month, the Afghanistan War will be eight years old; yet, in the last eight months, the Commander-in Chief has spoken on only a few occasions with the commander in the field. As we speak, the White House is conducting a “top to bottom” strategy and objectives review including a request for more troops for Afghanistan. The omens are not good. So what is to be done? The first step might be a dose of reality therapy. We must recognize the conflict with Islamism for what it is – a global conflict. There are no wars of “choice” (Iraq) or “necessity” (Afghanistan) and no separate archipelagos of terror. This is a single phenomenon with unitary tactics, strategy and objectives. The enemy is not a bearded man hiding in a cave somewhere or simply al Qaeda, as many administration sources have suggested. The foe is an extensive and remarkably effective net of decentralized proselytizing and fighting cells which have secular and theocratic state sponsors. Their reach is global.

If we can bring ourselves to rebrand the threat, we might rethink our alliances. Oriana Falacci may have been correct about the “cicadas,” her acid characterization of the European Union. At the moment, we may have more in common with the state Capitalism of Russia, the market Communism of China, the democratic pluralism of India, and the social security state of Japan. Other partners might include South Korea, Australia, Canada, and Israel; but the big four would be a start. The US has more of a future with any of these nations than any nation in the Muslim world – and possibly much of Europe. The recent Ali al Megrahi pandering to Libya by Great Britain is a symptom of how viral European appeasement has become. If a few bombs on Spanish trains can change a government in Madrid, imagine what changes might be wrought in Europe with nuclear weapons in Sunni and Shiite hands.

More recently, we can let the Norwegian Parliament’s expectations associated with the Nobel Peace Prize speak for themselves.

We might also rethink our strategy and tactics in Iraq and Afghanistan. Every measure of effectiveness; force to force, force to population, and strategy to strategy metrics suggests that ground war can not possibly result in anything that approximates victory or even stability in Iraq or Afghanistan (see appendix below). Contrary to White House claims, save technology, the war plan for South Asia is little different from our strategy in Vietnam or the Soviet strategy in their Afghan war. Making forays against terrorists or insurgents from defensive cantonments, with extended lines of communication, then as now, cedes most of the initiative to the enemy.

The imperative is to move from defense to offense and let the Ummah (Islamic world) do the nation building and stabilize their insurgents. To this end we should gift the so called “war on terror” to Islam; their problem to solve – or else. Jihad doctrine, fighters, finances, and moral support all originate within Dar al Islam. Instead of wasting precious lives and expensive munitions on remote mountain roads, we might contemplate the occasional shot across the bow, or more if necessary, over Tehran, Damascus, Cairo, Riyadh, Karachi, or Tripoli. Surely such offensive initiatives put our energy sources and debt service in play, but Muslim autocrats have even more to lose; and we might make that clear. If our cities are at risk, then their cities must suffer the same anxiety until the madness ends.

The alternative is an endless one-sided war of attrition by their rules, on their turf; all of which is designed to bleed Dar al Harb (literally “house of war” or we infidels) into submission. Recent arguments have parsed the Afghan front into two options; a war on terror (specifically against al Qaeda) or a war on insurgency (aka nation building). Choices here are distinguished by troop requirements; the Biden option argues for less troops and the McChrystal option calls for more. Unfortunately, after nearly a decade, neither strategy offers a clear path to victory or stability. Afghanistan not only represents another potential graveyard for Western empire, but it is a tactical distraction from a larger strategic question.

We need to ask ourselves why European and American troops need to die in any political desert to save the Islamic world from itself.

We should serve notice also on Muslim co-religionists worldwide that those who advocate or rationalize jihad of the sword, kalifa, sharia, anti-Semitism and other seditious polemics will not be welcome to America as immigrants, teachers, students, or visitors. The Bill of Rights was written to protect America not some global village. In short, kill two birds with one stone; turn “revenge of the cradle” back on itself and end the oxymoronic policy of tolerating intolerance in the name of tolerance.

And finally, we need to be crystal clear on the question of future Holocausts. No theocratic state or their “non-state” actors should possess the capability to “wipe Israel off the face of the earth”. We can take Islamists at their word on their intentions; it’s their growing military capability, those weapons of mass destruction, which need to be neutered. The idea that passive missile defense in Europe or in the Mediterranean will act as a deterrent is an assumption and nothing more. There is no evidence to suggest that defensive missile technology works or that “supreme rulers” subscribe to Deterrence or any other rational actor theories.

Israel can not do anything about her geography or her history; and to be honest, Israel has done more with her modest sand box in fifty years than Persia or Arabia has done in the last five hundred years with all of the Levant and North Africa. Ralph Bunche once said that “when two peoples claim the same land, someone has to lose.” Indeed! We need make it clear to Americans and the world that our immutable policy on Jews and genocide is “never again”.

There are more than a few practical advantages to adopting the foregoing policy initiatives. As a group they are deficit neutral; indeed, there is every reason to believe that there might be Levant and South Asia dividends if we turn “nation building” over to the natives. The new American administration ran on the slogan; “change we can believe in.” Surely, like Lenin at the start of the last century, Barack Obama is the most articulate and persuasive revolutionary of the new century. The world is waiting to be told; “what is to be done?”

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Appendix; The following is a brief summary of measures of effectiveness, statistically based ways of assessing the probability of military success; success is defined as victory or stability. None of these measures comes remotely close to a positive reading for a ground war in Iraq or Afghanistan.

S. J. Deitchman, “A Lanchester Model of Guerrilla Warfare,” Institute for Defense Analysis, 23 May 1963: Lanchester models of force ratios are thought to apply best to conventional warfare. However such modeling has established a number of axioms: all other things being equal (which they seldom are), a bigger force is a better force; technology does offset the numbers; but numbers still matter in important ways.

James T. Quinlivan, “The Burden of Victory; the Painful Arithmetic of Stability Operations,” Rand Review, summer, 2003: The combined Iraqi/Afghan populations are over 50 million; suggesting more than a million trained personnel might be required just to stabilize these two countries of the Ummah. Or in the words of a mathematician: “The extremely low force ratio for Afghanistan, a country with a larger population than that of Iraq, shows the implausibility of current stabilization efforts by external forces”. This is the polite way of saying there are not enough US troops in the field to do the job – nor is an adequate force likely to be deployed. For a government contractor, Quinlivan’s candor is rare, indeed.

Ivan Arrequin-Toft, “How the Weak Win Wars; A Theory of Asymmetric Conflict,” International Security, summer 2001, pp. 93-128: Toft’s strategy to strategy findings are consistent with force to population models. Yet, it is less clear that Islamists are weak or small, but Toft’s bottom line is hard to dispute; “If history is any guide, the insurgents (Islamists) will win”.

Aside from the low probability of success, Afghanistan has the same “distraction” potential that Iraq had. For the moment, Iraq and Afghanistan are still secular states; Iran, on the other hand, is a theocracy about to go nuclear. Our inability or unwillingness to prioritize the targets in the Islamist threat matrix is an alarming and dangerous development.
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Mourning Taps


I woke to the sound of taps on the radio this morning, a world turned upside down for someone who served in the military. Reveille usually begins a soldier’s day and taps ends it. Taps in another time was also the bugle call to signal lights out, literally; or the end of a soldier’s life, figuratively. Before I could unscramble all those images in the morning fog, Anna’s cell phone alarm chirped. I hit “OK” and the text read; “It’s Veterans Day”.

I had forgotten, but she never does. She, who never had a whiff of gun powder, reminds herself to remind me of why it’s important to remember. So here again in another year where sons and daughters are in harm’s way, we should remember and give thanks. Give thanks to those who serve, give thanks to those who have served, and give thanks to “those who sit and wait”. And we say a prayer for those who wait no more; those who went in harm’s way and never returned.

Yes, say a prayer too for those who died or were wounded needlessly at Fort Hood the other day. Men and women who had every right to believe they were safe getting ready to make us safe. The Fort Hood warriors were twice burdened; dying for “diversity” and want of leadership.

Indeed, in this wet cold winter of national uncertainty we should all pray that George Orwell’s tribute to soldiers echoes across every breakfast table; “We sleep safe in our beds because rough men (and women) stand ready in the night to visit violence on those who would do us harm”.

For this we should all say thank you.
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Casey Strikes Out


Army General George Casey, set a new standard for flag officer pandering while making excuses for domestic terror on the Sunday talk circuit on 8 November. On three separate networks he seemed to be more concerned with “diversity” than troop safety. Casey you may recall was the failing field commander in Iraq who, like William Westmoreland before him, was kicked upstairs, in the middle of a war, to be Army Chief of Staff. Last Sunday, Casey was seconded by the White House when the president cautioned “against jumping to conclusions until we have all the facts”.

This is the same Barak Hussien Obama who had no trouble jumping to conclusions about the Cambridge Police and charging them with “stupidity” for arresting an abusive and uncooperative Harvard professor; a presidential pal .So let’s look at those “facts” about Major Nidal Malik Hasan before we jump to any conclusions.

Hasan was an American citizen of Palestinian descent. He received all of his higher education at taxpayer expense in exchange for a limited tour of duty with the Army. He is a middle aged field grade officer, a doctor, and psychiatrist. He spent most of his military career at the notorious Walter Reed Medical Center, in Washington, DC, counseling combat veterans. He likes to argue with patients, proselytize them, and passes out copies of the Koran. Off duty, he is fond of donning Islamic garb and patronizing a radical mosque five miles from the capitol. He is an outspoken critic of the “war on terror” which he preferred to call the war on Islam – contradicting his commander-in- chief. He is known to have publicly asserted that his first loyalty was to Islam, not America. He, or his name sake, posted defenses of suicide bombers on radical Islamic web sites. He attempted and possibly contacted an iman, a jihad recruiter, linked to al Qaeda. His automobile sported a bumper sticker “Allah is Love!” His bizarre behavior was reported to his superiors to no avail. Other colleagues say they kept silent out of fears that any criticism of Hasan would violate unwritten Army rules of political correctness. Army brass “kicked the can” and transferred Hasan to Fort Hood, Texas where he received orders for his first overseas deployment. In protest, he claimed that he could not kill other Muslims; yet, he apparently had no problem murdering kafirs. On 5 November he shot and killed 13 unarmed fellow soldiers, including a pregnant mother, and wounded 31 – shouting “allahu akbar” in Arabic (God is great) as the massacre progressed.

Consider those facts; but let’s not jump to any conclusions. While you’re at it, consider the litany of false narratives that have followed yet another mass killing in the name of “Allah”. First was the characterization of Hasan as a victim; a victim of trash talk and having his automobile keyed, surely a racist slur. Then there was the post traumatic stress defense (PTSD). When it was revealed that Hasan had never been deployed anywhere near combat; apologists suggested he was stressed by the stress of his patients, stress by association if you will. And then the “lone wolf” defense appeared where solo actors apparently have immunity from being characterized as terrorists.

Consider also the facts in the unclassified Global Terrorism Database (GTD) maintained under federal contract at the University of Maryland which now contains the gory details of over 80,000 terrorist “incidents”; yes that number is eighty thousand worldwide since 1970. Also consider the unclassified data base maintained by US State Department, Country Reports on Terrorism, which tracks annual casualty figures from terror. Those casualties have grown by a factor of 15 since tracking began. In 2008 alone nearly 60,000 were kidnapped, killed, or injured worldwide.

And before we jump to any conclusions, we, like Senator Joe Lieberman, need the answers to some questions. How did Casey get to be a general? Where did he get the notion that diversity is more important than national security or the safety of the troops? How did Nadal Malik Hasan get a commission in the US Army? Who thought he should be promoted? How does the Army get to play “kick the can” or “pass the buck” with dangerous incompetents? And finally, how much longer do we ignore what Islamists and terrorists so obviously have in common?

Consider all of this before you come to any conclusions. And then add the Fort Hood slaughter to the data bases, those reservoirs of facts we are so keen to keep – and ignore. And then make the number of atrocities we are willing to tolerate, or excuse, eighty thousand and one.

General George Casey repeated the same mantra as he made the rounds on 8 November; “If our diversity becomes a casualty (of the Fort Hood massacre) then that’s worse”. Worse than what, general? We want to know what in the warped world of political correctness is worse than putting a bullet through an innocent pregnant girl and 43 of her innocent fellow soldiers.
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Turkish Backsliding


(Appeared in American Thinker on 31 Oct 09)

Caroline Glick's 15 Oct piece in the Jerusalem Post, ”How Turkey was Lost”, is a cautionary tale about confusing elections with democracy. She describes Ankara’s back sliding since the election of Recep Tuyyip Erdogan, head of the formerly outlawed Islamist AKP. Since Erdogan came to power in 2002, Turkey has given Hamas a reception usually reserved for heads of state, eliminated the visa requirements for Syrian travelers to Turkey, and now cancelled air exercises with Israel and begun joint military maneuvers with Syria.

Glick seems to believe that the Turks have cast their lot with the Shiite Crescent. If what she suggests is true; we now have an Islamist fox in the NATO henhouse. Can membership in the European Union be far behind? Turkey has long been held up as an exemplar of a model Islamic state; secular, moderate, democratic, and collegial. The inherent contradictions of an “Islamic republic” may be coming home to roost - putting the lie to secular, moderate, and collegial.

The irony of elections in a country with an Islamist majority is that it often represents the camel’s nose under the tent; opening the door for opportunists to hold the one election that may be the last. On this score, Algeria evokes hot flashes of déjà vu. Islamists may be fanatics, but they're not morons; they will use Western institutions to undo apostates and infidels. Such are the vicissitudes of democracy.

And such is the dilemma also in Afghanistan; we have a choice between the corruptible Karzai and the incorruptible Taliban, Mullah Omar. Not too many good options in this neighborhood. If Omar ever ran in a UN supervised election; he might win in a landslide. The big problem with Afghanistan, like Iraq before, is its potential for distraction.

The only accomplishment of elections in Iraq was to reverse the sectarian poles – and assist Iraq in becoming the second Shiite nation in the Crescent, another potential ally for theocratic Tehran. Land-locked Afghanistan is not an immediate, or should we say proximate, threat to America or Israel. Afghanistan has six neighbors; five of which are Muslim states, all with a vested interest in neutering the Taliban and al Qaeda. As Bernard Lewis has reminded us so many times; Islamic fundamentalism is more of a threat to dar al Islam (the Muslim world) than it is to us. Elections in Turkey, Iraq, and Afghanistan may prove to be meaningless.

Another UN supervised circus proves nothing. We should turn nation building over to the natives. If we can't influence electoral probity in Egypt, Jordan, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, or the Emirates; why do we think we can do it in Kabul? With Turkey now backsliding, the European Union pandering, and the White House apologizing; we have to ask ourselves why another American kid should die in any Muslim backwater to underwrite another election. Indeed, we need to know why we need to save Islam from itself.

The difference between the Bush and Obama brands of Islamic electoral illusion is negligible. Glick's analysis of Turkish irredentism is a cautionary tale. Turkey, on a larger scale, is similar to Algeria; Islamists will use elections to come to power, but their objective is not pluralism or any notion of democracy as we know it.
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Bibi's Lament


Under the lengthening shadows of another genocidal threat, the Prime Minister of Israel addressed a half empty chamber of the United Nations on 24 September. With eloquent phrasing, reminiscent of Churchill, he admonished that gathering for its hypocrisy and indifference to truth. He castigated holocaust deniers and anti-Semites who flourish in that East River sanctuary. He reserved a special contempt for so-called “human rights” advocates who would condemn Israel while ignoring decades of Arab and Muslim barbarity. For those who can not or will not remember, he also reviewed the specifics of the last European genocide; the depredations of the Nazis and the German people. He drew a parallel between that time and ours while citing the unprecedented nature of today’s threat - the marriage of religious fanaticism and nuclear weapons. Benjamin Netanyahu said what needed to be said; and what needed to be said can not be said too often. He said all that and more. Yet, Bibi never uttered the word Islam.

Such is the nature of truth; half of what matters is often left unspoken. Indeed, truth is a curious thing. Facts, reason, and morality often do not matter. Truth is what we believe; yet what we believe is not necessarily true - or moral. Still, no idea is more powerful than a belief. This was the special menace that Netanyahu was trying to define, beliefs that are both powerful - and wrong. He also spoke of inertia. The tendency of men to put off the tough decisions and actions until it is too late. Quoting Churchill, he lamented the “unteachability of mankind”, the tendency to procrastinate until “self-preservation strikes its jarring gong”.

If that prophetic gong is nuclear, the Middle East dilemma will find its lowest common denominator, the “no state” solution. The Arab world might lose a hundred wars; Israel can lose but one. All national security threats have two components; intentions and capability. Those who would “wipe Israel off the face of the earth” make no secret of their intentions. How many times does the world have to hear such declarations before we recognize the truth of what Islamists believe? The other half of threat is capability. Intentions are meaningless without capabilities. Heretofore, all conventional attempts to exterminate Israel have failed. They failed for the same reason that Persia failed to conquer Greece 2,500 years ago; free men have more to fight for.

Iran is the first Shiite nation in modern history. With the sectarian poles now reversed in Mesopotamia, Iraq may be the next state to fall to the ayatollahs. Indeed, with the aid of Hezbollah, Lebanon may capitulate through democratic elections. Clearly, Sunni alarms about a “Shiite Crescent” are not without foundation. Nonetheless, demographically the Shia represents no more that ten percent of all Muslims. As we dither over the Iranian nuclear impasse we might ask ourselves why this minority sect seeks nuclear weapons and why now. The answer may lie behind words not spoken – words like “Islam”.

The Shiites have suffered the indignities of minority status and charges of apostasy within Islam for 600 hundred years. Nuclear weapons provide an opportunity to skip echelon – immediately elevate themselves to first world status, especially in Dar al Islam, the Muslim world. The Sunni dominated Arab League has been remarkably incompetent in its numerous conventional confrontations with Israel. Nuclear weapons represent a Shiite capability to do what the Sunni could not.

The Islam bomb is a reality. Since Pakistan acquired the weapon, they have become bold if not flagrant state sponsors of terror and nuclear proliferation. They now work both sides of the street like cat house piano players. No one calls their game because Pakistan has achieved a kind of two-faced immunity. When Israel is bracketed by weapons of mass destruction; Islamism will attempt to blow out the lights on the only democracy in the Levant.

Netanyahu did not need to persuade the enemies of Israel. No amount of facts, reason, or moral suasion is likely to move the imoveable. Politicians and clerics, good or evil, rise to leadership positions because they are sure of themselves and their beliefs. It’s no accident that Netanyahu spoke in English the other day. He was speaking to his skeptical friends; he was speaking to America. Threat analysis is the second most difficult intellectual challenge in the world; and bridging the gap between analysis and acceptance is the hardest task of all. Beliefs, even the misguided beliefs of friends, are often insurmountable. This is Bibi’s lament. The clock is ticking.
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Ethnic Immunity


Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar.” – Sigmund Freud

Maureen Dowd and the New York Times (see Boy, Oh Boy, 12 Sept 09) have made it official; Barack Obama has been granted ethnic immunity. Like Marion Barry, former mayor and now councilman in the District of Columbia, and Charles Rangel of the House Ways and Means Committee, any criticism of the president’s behavior might be dismissed as racism. Never mind that the president was raised by a white mother and abandoned by a black father. Never mind that he then enjoyed a privileged background which included the best prep school in Hawaii; followed by Ivy League undergraduate and graduate schools. Never mind that our first “black” president does not send his daughters to the self-segregating, all black, District of Columbia public schools. Never mind any of this; the new post-racial, bi-racial president is now just another victim of white racism.

Miss Dowd begins, as many such arguments do, with invective, an ad hominem attack. The purpose of name calling is to poison the well. Thus Joe Wilson (R-SC) is smeared at the outset as a “milquetoast” backbencher. Dowd goes on to say that she didn’t hear Wilson shout “you lie”, she heard him shout “you lie, boy” at the president. Like the thought police, Maureen now reads minds. Put aside, for the moment, Dowd’s vitriolic clairvoyance, which surely says more about her patronizing view of black men than it does about Wilson’s motives. More disturbing is her treatment of the facts. Surely, anyone who calls the president a liar on the floor of the House of Representatives can not possibly be a wimp. Just as surely, if the shout of “liar” could be heard by the President, Speaker Pelosi, and the entire nation, Wilson wasn’t speaking from the any literal or figurative “back bench”. Indeed, the most surprising part of the 9 September confrontation was that the shout of “liar” was only heard once.

If Wilson lacks tact, his candor more than compensates. This is more than we can say for Maureen’s hysterical reaction. She goes on in her column to use every snarky trick in the rhetorical playbook to impugn Representative Wilson’s integrity. We are told that he is a descendant of Confederates, a citizen of South Carolina, and similar innuendo or guilt by association attributed to conservative white males from south of the Mason Dixon. Between calling Obama a “boy” and savaging Wilson for being a southern “white male”, Dowd manages to validate many of the stereotypes about aging liberal spinsters; so much venom, so little time. Yet, what Miss Dowd didn’t say is even more telling. She doesn’t say anything about the facts that might prove or disprove Wilson’s charge. He shouted “liar” at that point in Obama’s health care pitch where the president claims his bill would not cover illegals. A day or two later, House Democrats quickly inserted language in the healthcare draft to exclude illegals, in effect, giving more than a measure of truth to Wilson’s charges.

Dowd also ignores other distortions like cost, tort reform, and the impacts on Medicare and Medicaid. The most blatant mendacity she ignores might be Obama’s claim that a reordering of 20% of nation’s economy would not “add a dime to the deficit (sic).” Hearing all this, there are three possibilities; Obama is a liar, he is a fool, or he believes he is speaking to idiots. Most of the truth may lay behind door number three. Obama was addressing a joint session of Congress. P.J. O’Rourke has characterized that collective as a “Parliament of  Hookers”. In contrast, Miss Dowd characterizes the same forum as a “majestic chamber”. The space between these extremes is filled by opinion polls which now rate American politicians somewhere between the floor and dirt.

Indeed, former President Jimmy Carter has endorsed Dowd’s histrionics. Speaking to NBC’s Brian Williams on 15 September, Carter claimed that race was at the core of opposition to Obama. On the same day that Dowd’s piece appeared, Colbert King at the Washington Post flashed his race card too, capturing the moment with; “It’s all sweet music to the ears of Lee Harvey Oswald wanabees.” When the race card appears, it is often a symptom that someone is losing an argument.

Miss Dowd has made a cottage industry out of conservative cadavers; she has been dining out on the Bush family in particular for 20 years. When not conducting séances for the Times, Dowd and her Washington Post colleague, Sally Quinn, preside over those political salons on the Left side of DC. Indeed, if Helen Thomas is the doyenne of the White House Press Corps; Dowd has earned her bones as doyenne of the Georgetown chapter of the Obama Girls.

Yet even self-anointed cheerleaders sometimes trip over their laces. Joe Wilson didn’t call the president a “boy”, Maureen Dowd did. In doing do, she resuscitated the original raps against the President – questions about his maturity and competence. Before coming to Washington, Obama had three bullets in his resume; two books about himself and a legislative record of voting “present” on any issue that might threaten his “political viability”. Using race to inoculate Obama against criticism isn’t doing the President any favors. Indeed, the best advice for Dowd, her sycophants, and the New York Times appeared in the on-line commentary after her 12 September polemic; “Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar. Grow up!”
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From Me to Thee


At the outset, let me explain my bias. I hate gerunds; and, I don’t care much for people who use them, those who take perfectly good nouns or turn them into verbs. Like euphemisms, gerunds obscure rather than illuminate; or worse still, are coined to impress not express. Indeed, many gerunds are nothing more than specialized jargon; code speak among the initiates. The education and psychology professions are especially fond of gerunds, words like “parenting”. We do many things to and for our children; we feed them, we cloth them, we bath them, we play with them, we change their knickers, we train them (as in toilet), we teach them (as in reading, writing, and arithmetic), we try to develop good morals by example, and we pray daily that they don’t grow up to be serial killers or socialists. Pardon any redundancies.

None of this rich context is captured by the word “parenting”. Parenting conveys two meanings; either your plumbing works or you have a good lawyer. Any idiot can be a parent. Adding an “ing” to what you do to your kids will not make you a good one. It doesn’t take a village and certainly it doesn’t take government at any level. Raising children requires the deuce that produced, leavened by common sense. The first full measure of devotion is time – your time. If we must have a verb form, “raise” or rear are much more descriptive terms. Raise suggests that we take something that is less and make it more.

Surely we all hope that all children will grow to become competent, functional adults. Yet, as the need to “raise” suggests, the beginning is not auspicious. Indeed, an infant is a loud, dependant, demanding, inarticulate, mean spirited, pink mass of wet libido – and they don’t smell that hot either. Or if we must use some psychobabble; a kid is Id wrapped in a very annoying ego. They eat, they make noise, they defecate, make more noise; and then, thank God, they sleep. And when they wake up again, they want you to change their napkins. In the naked interlude between wiped and rewrapped, they might pee on you – and laugh. The road from the joys of infancy to butcher, baker, or candlestick maker is lumpy and long. No mammal or primate in the animal kingdom spends more time in the womb or more time tied to apron strings.

Nonetheless, maturity is the process of moving from me to thee. Socialization is the process of going from taking a dump in your diaper, to sending your dump to a treatment plant. Education is the process of balancing your accounts between your ears instead of on your fingers and toes. Culture is the process of being able to distinguishing between Botox and Beaujolais. In life, process contains all the meaning we will ever need; we’re all headed for the same place. How we get there, competence if you will, is what makes us different – that and lipstick. Thank you, Sarah.

All of which brings us to the subject at hand, another “how to” book on raising children; Unconditional Parenting; Moving from Rewards and Punishments to Love and Reason by Alfie Kohn. We have already dealt with the title now let’s see if there’s any thing to salvage in the subtitle and text.

We might think of the whole process of maturation as a process of diminishing pleasure and increasing pain. No one wants to walk the dog before bed, but it’s less painful than scraping a wet pile off that nice Persian rug in the hall. Here we are talking about the pain for gain or achievement, not necessarily a bad thing in itself. Kohn is not too crazy about any process of rewards and punishments; he thinks such things are about manipulation and control, as if control were a bad thing.

The fatal assumption here is utopian. Control is what pack animals do. Civilization is the process of establishing norms; controlling behavior and manipulating the environment. Life is a compromise between what we want and what we need. The end game is simple; do you want your kids to live in your basement with a cell phone, a video game, and an I-Pod or do you need them to get out to the mall like the rest of us? A world without rewards and punishment is a lot like scoreless sports. Indeed, a baseball analogy might help.

Not long ago I watched several kids in front of my house attempting to play whiffle ball; one was an older lad who was here for the summer. The visitor didn’t seem to know much about the rules. When he finally hit the ball, he ran to third, reasoning and arguing that the rules were “stupid” because third was closer to home than first or second. I couldn’t fault his logic. He also argued that a foul ball could not be a strike because you are already punished by not being allowed to run to first. No double jeopardy in his version of baseball.

As the locals became more frustrated, I tried to intervene as an umpire or adult arbiter of the rules, to no avail. That idyllic summer evening ended badly with most of kids muttering their way home while the visiting kid complained loudly that no one liked him, no one wanted to play with him. Clearly he came from a place where argumentation and tedious rationalizations were the order of the day. All interactions with peers and adults were some kind of negotiation where anything arbitrary might be skewered on his brand of logic. By this metric, he was successful. There were no arbitrary rules or restrictions, no give and take – and apparently no friends.

He was born this way, as are we all. His problem now is arrested development. He still thinks he is the center of the universe; someone is still changing his knickers. He has not even started the trip from me to thee. His universe has been padded with acceptance or “unconditional love” and his mind given over to tedious arguments. For him, reason is not just a tool; it is an instrument of torture. Every contact with an arbitrary world requires some semi chaotic confrontation. His ego has been cultivated at the expense of his character.

At the advanced age of eleven, he does not know that life is a team sport. With no boundaries at home; everything outside that bubble is an obstacle. This is Mr. Kohn’s new world, unconditional love and reason triumphant over rewards and punishment. Unfortunately, the fact that you might have unconditional affection for someone or something does not make them loveable – certainly not for the rest of us. The real value of “unconditional” support is when it is granted by peers not indulgent parents.

Kohn’s understanding of reason is another cipher. He seems to confuse it with collaboration, discussion, or consultation – as if these things were synonymous. Reason is rule based thinking, nothing more; philosophers from Aristotle to Pascal to Marx have understood this. Reason is not the discussion of alternatives; it is the application of rules. Balancing your checkbook and calculating the load bearing capacity of a toilet seat are examples. If you believe the rules are arbitrary, you do so at your peril. We live in rule based societies; our language, grammar, laws, science, religion, and even our manners are governed by rules. We do not belch in a quiet church nor do we pick our nose at the sushi bar.

The author also seems to be more than a revisionist on the subject. He not only believes that children can reason, he seems to think that by some magic kids can reason their way to the correct answer with more support and less control. Someone must have slept through Piaget. Almost every society on the face of the earth has some version of a coming of age ritual. The significance of these rituals is the recognition that children are not adults. Kids require experience and training before they are burdened with responsibility and choices. This age varies from place to place, but for the most part, the spread is from eight to fourteen years of age. In many cultures, it is called “the age of reason”. Other echoes of this universal wisdom are legal driving, drinking, voting ages and at least ten years of mandatory schooling? The purpose of all this tradition and attendant controls is the near universal belief that youngsters must learn to follow before they can solo - or be expected to lead. Nobody follows the nitwit who goes to third before rounding first and second. Parents who encourage such misguided independence and mischief ought to be given a time out.

The pee-wee league may give every player a trophy, but in an adult world, rewards are earned. Allowing children to make their own choices, when most are clearly not equipped to do so, is another nugget of new age nonsense. Choice is one of the rewards of success. Achievement, not affection, is the arbiter of choices, for children and adults. If you are good at something, you get to choose all the rewards that success begets. Only an idiot will give a good grade, a place on a sports team, a good job or a promotion just to make you feel better.

Being good at something is more important than feeling good. No kid is well served by parents who worry more about feelings than competence. In the end all losers feel bad about themselves. Love is not enough. And feeling bad about your self is not necessarily a bad thing. No pain, no gain; as the jocks are wont to say. Indeed, regret is the engine of progress. Without regrets no change is possible. If you can’t follow the rules, if you don’t learn to play, the ump gets to say “out” or toss your sorry butt off the field – talk about feeling bad.

Kohn also tells us that “because I said so” is never a good reason to give the rug rats; we must be less controlling and more supportive – less “to them” and more “with them”. To this we should all say balderdash; or maybe two other four letter words would do. Consistency is not just the hobgoblin of little minds; that and repetition is the foundation of all learning. For those who don’t believe in consistency and control, I recommend story time.

Tell or read stories to your children. After a while give them a choice of what they would like to hear. Nine out of ten times kids will ask for their favorite, over and over. Try changing Goldie to a brunette. You will be met with a barrage of indignation; the kid wants to hear the original, not some revision. Ask your children what they would like to eat, if its buttered noodles or macaroni and cheese, chances are he or she will eat it seven days a week if allowed. Left to their own devices many youngsters develop a kind of gastronomic autism, the symptom of which is the ready made litany of things they “will not eat”. Unrestricted choice is the villain behind every autocrat of the breakfast table.

Remember when the little dears learned a new word or sound and you had to hear it a thousand times a day. On such days mothers contemplate the virtues of vasectomies. Kids need controls and they actually seek consistency and predictability; like Linus’s blanket; it’s a comfort. If you don’t give or create sensible boundaries, they will create their own.

I know a guy with two and a half degrees who is still living with his parents and two birds; he’s fifty years of age. Success for this guy will be two dead parents; and the fruits of their labors. He created his own boundaries.

The number of recognized and diagnosable psychological aliments has grown a hundred fold since 1950. Indeed, many practitioners claim the number of autistic kids is one in a hundred and the number of children with a “deficit” disorder of some sort is one in ten. Maybe our kids are catching these things from public toilet seats, or maybe it is something closer to home. Or maybe today’s behavioral problem is tomorrow’s pathology.

This new age epidemic of juvenile neurosis suggests that medical science has given us longer life just so we might be tortured by psychiatry. Yet, the aim of psychology, like litigation, is to keep the ball in play. You may win or lose; therapists and litigators get paid either way. And the pharmacies are doing nicely too, thank you. Those who shun “controls” for their little darlings seldom reject the chemical variety. Indeed, “controlled substance” is now our most infamous oxymoron.

Contrary to what Kohn and others suggest; rewards, punishments, and controls for children are good things. Indeed, they are pillars of civilization. Flooding a child’s world with choices is not a good thing; most kids do not have the experience or maturity to deal with too many options. And choice and freedom are not synonymous; true freedom comes from success. Indeed, success equates to options. Feeling good is a really a function of being good – at something. An immature kid, with too many choices and no controls, can only become one thing; a lord of the flies.

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A Second Dark Age


(A bowdlerized version of these comments appeared in the 29 April edition of the Moscow Times.)

Dr. Gordon Hahn’s analysis of the Caucuses Jihad in the Moscow Times (27 Apr 09) is a timely addition to the literature on a growing world-wide movement. Unfortunately, he is preaching to the choir. The Russian government and the Russian people seem to have a realistic contemporary and historical appreciation of the threat. The current American administration and American Press do not share that view. Hahn’s thoughts would probably not see the light of day in the United States. Such assessments are not politically correct.

The Obama administration and a compliant domestic Press have officially proscribed such terms as jihad, Islamist and terrorist. Our overseas combat fronts are now to be known as “overseas contingencies” and the enemy is not to be associated with Islam, the religion of “peace”. As everyone knows, the theology and culture that most terrorists share has nothing to do with what they have in common. These Orwellian contortions suggest that the US crisis management team thinks they can jawbone their way out of the gathering storm. Surely this is a great comfort to the jihad clergy and their many “fringe” followers.

Russia and America may cooperate on the reduction of nuclear weapons stocks, but this will be driven by mutual strategic and economic self-interest. Indeed, we both have enough weapons for overkill. We do not need to make the “rubble bounce”.

The Islam bomb is another kettle of fish. The Sunni sect already has the weapon and Pakistan is one bullet away from theocracy. The Shia sect already has the theocracy and Iran is a few tests away from a bomb. Both factions have targets in common; the first ground zero for either would be Israel. I see no evidence of a strategy of “mutual assured deterrence” in Arabic or Islamic literature. The prospects for any meaningful cooperation between Russia and America on theocratic or emerging nuclear threats are dim as long as America believes the hazard comes from an insignificant “fringe group”.

Our current dilemma reminds me of Blaise Pascal’s gambit; a risk assessment method that should be applied to national security. If we overestimate the threat and it does not materialize; we lose nothing but treasure and possibly some credibility. If we underestimate the threat, we could lose everything. Underestimates are always dangerous and frequently fatal.

Bernard Lewis at Princeton, arguably America’s most prominent Islamic scholar, has said that a “dark future” awaits the world if it fails to deal with the spreading threat of militant Islamic theocracy. Dark indeed! That future of which Dr. Lewis speaks is a return to a medieval world, a second Dark Age.
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